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sepeskoe

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Executive level management. 40 years of high tech R&D for the DoD, Intelligence Community and Homeland Security.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 13, 2024 08:07PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 Oct 13, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 Oct 13, 2024 100%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 13, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 Dec 13, 2024 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 20, 2024 05:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 20, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025 Oct 20, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025 Oct 20, 2024 100%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 20, 2024 05:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 5%
No 100% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 20, 2024 05:39PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 07:38PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 1%
No 98% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 99%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 07:42PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 80% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 84%
No 20% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 16%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 11%
No 95% 89%
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