| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 11 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
Today's direct IDF tweet (https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776) says- "limited, localized, and targeted ground raids (...) against Hezbollah (...) to achieve the goals of the war (...)"
I think this is as close to the resolution criteria as we're going to get, and I give it a 90% chance that the RAND resolvers will consider this resolved now. If they don't, I give it a 10% chance of Israel escalating further.
Today's direct IDF tweet (https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776) says- "limited, localized, and targeted ground raids (...) against Hezbollah (...) to achieve the goals of the war (...)"
I think this is as close to the resolution criteria as we're going to get, and I give it a 90% chance that the RAND resolvers will consider this resolved now. If they don't, I give it a 10% chance of Israel escalating further.
I'm decreasing my previous probability by 10%, down to 20%, because of the recent chain of assassinations and targeted strikes. I think Israel is displaying a preference for such strategies rather than a full war, and I also think Israel gained enough "wins" already that starting a war would feel like the wrong move for most citizens.
I'm decreasing my previous probability by 10%, down to 25%, because of the recent chain of assassinations and targeted strikes. I think Israel is displaying a preference for such strategies rather than a full war, and I also think Israel gained enough "wins" already that starting a war would feel like the wrong move for most citizens.
if China ever wanted to invade Taiwan -- the next few years are the perfect time to do so. High value of chips etc, and slowly dwindling number of chinese soldiers (age 20-45 group is at its peak, within a decade there will be *way* less available soldiers).
Still, very low chance of them doing this after the Ukraine response from the western world.
Chips for AI may end up more important than political ties to other nations
Based only on historical data, I think it'll increase again, by 50%-100%