Today's direct IDF tweet (https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776https://x.com/IDF/status/1840890054819864776) says- "limited, localized, and targeted ground raids (...) against Hezbollah (...) to achieve the goals of the war (...)"
I think this is as close to the resolution criteria as we're going to get, and I give it a 90% chance that the RAND resolvers will consider this resolved now. If they don't, I give it a 10% chance of Israel escalating further.
Based only on historical data, I think it'll increase again, by 50%-100%