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New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+5%)
Yes
85%
(-5%)
No
NVIDIA has already fallen to be the third most valuable company behind Apple and Microsoft and operates in a highly competitive market. It is unlikely that they return to the top and would continue to hold it, especially given that there are likely no great innovations on their product sector on the immediate horizon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
99%
(+2%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
This is looking increasingly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Keeping my old forecast; there is little indication that Maduro would be forced to step down.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 05:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
10%
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Iran has just struck Israel with missiles, and retribution seems likely based on Netanyahu's statements. Overall, the situation is rapidly taking a turn for the worse in the region and while I think an outright declaration of war is unlikely, missile strikes seem quite probable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
With the tensions with Israel rapidly mounting, I am confident that stockpile will increase or at most very slightly decrease.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 01:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(+10%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
5%
(-10%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
The situation is already extremely warlike. Difficult to see how it is not one already.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Keeping a 5% chance for the question interpretation.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 01:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+15%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
10%
(-15%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
The situation is already extremely warlike. Difficult to see how it is not one already.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Keeping a 10% chance for the question interpretation.
Files