The situation is already extremely warlike. Difficult to see how it is not one already.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Comments | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+15%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
10%
(-15%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Keeping a 10% chance for the question interpretation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
25%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Seems quite imminent already.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
15%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Seems quite imminent already.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVIDIA has already fallen to be the third most valuable company behind Apple and Microsoft and operates in a highly competitive market. It is unlikely that they return to the top and would continue to hold it, especially given that there are likely no great innovations on their product sector on the immediate horizon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The AI market is volatile and introduction of a framework/technology that would beneficial to train in-house could result in demand for GPUs to tick up.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+2%)
Yes
3%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Unfortunately, it seems that Venezuela has slid into authoritarianism and chances for the election result to be overturned look slim. Now even more time has passed, so updating my forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Dictatorships are not the stablest of governments, and therefore more prone to sudden shifts.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 11:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
97%
No
Aug 30, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
We are not seeing a buildup of forces necessary for an invasion or attack campaign during the next few months. A blockade is slightly more probable, but would have serious political ramifications due to the perceived military importance of AI technology.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The situation is already extremely warlike. Difficult to see how it is not one already.
Why might you be wrong?
Keeping a 5% chance for the question interpretation.