stunning-teacher-76

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0.024281

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity

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Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology

Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation

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My First Question

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

stunning-teacher-76 made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

50%

Yes

50%

Why do you think you're right?

The broader public and government concern creates incentive to flag content as being generated by AI, particularly because it creates the perception that they are being reponsible and places the perceived liability on the individual user.

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Why might you be wrong?

Social media companies still do not have actual liablity for the actions of users based on Section 230. They could use their current strategy of passing off responsiblity to regulate to the federal government, specifically Congress, whom they know will likely be unable to act due to political gridlock.