Media sources will have to address deep fakes to preserve trust and reputation.
4.84973
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There will be an alternative to digital provenance that people will agree on - for example, people vouching for authenticity, or digitally signing the document (even if they did not produce it).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Yes
79%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Meta does not want to make LLMs look bad.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Meta may want to pin the blame on their competitor.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
They will have to do it to improve trust with their costumers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
People may not care enough for this to be an issue.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Less than 4 million
30%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
5%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Signing up for things is hard!!! Especially for something I never heard about.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are mandates, people will have to sign up.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Yes
3%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Multiple reasons
- They will be required by the government (US or EU)
- They will want to increase the trust of consumers
Files
Why might you be wrong?
These companies may not exist
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?