telycorbett

Tom
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Biology grad interested in geopolitics. New to this so no criticising the brier score yet! Super interested in unique perspectives and the sources of information that support them.

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Forecasted Questions
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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 96% 97%
No 4% 3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:48PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 55% 34%
No 45% 66%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 97% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 96% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 0%
No 95% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 100%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 40% Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025 Feb 15, 2025 22%
No 60% Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025 Feb 15, 2025 78%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 98% 99%
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