telycorbett

Tom
About:

Biology grad interested in geopolitics. New to this so no criticising the brier score yet! Super interested in unique perspectives and the sources of information that support them.

Show more
View All Badges »
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 96% 97%
No 4% 3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:48PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 55% 34%
No 45% 66%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 97% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 96% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 0%
No 95% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 100%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 08:19PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 40% Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025 Feb 15, 2025 22%
No 60% Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025 Feb 15, 2025 78%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 98% 99%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel