Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
10
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 5 | 96 | 10 | 96 |
| Comments | 3 | 4 | 39 | 9 | 39 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(+43%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
55%
(-43%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Recent show of force could lead into invasion.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's merely an exercise.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Yes
97%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's a lot of ground for NVDA to makeup in 2 months. AI models are too diversified to give NVDA an edge right now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Surprise announcements.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
73%
Yes
27%
No
Why do you think you're right?
October is a long way away. Had a length of ceasefire (e.g 30 days) been specified in the resolution criteria I would agree with the crowd, but a ceasefire which is quickly annulled seems most feasible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is playing poker
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-35%)
Yes
Feb 13, 2025 to Feb 13, 2026
95%
(+35%)
No
Feb 13, 2025 to Feb 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Regional dynamics do not suggest so
Files
Why might you be wrong?
US/Israeli coalition forces enter Gaza AND ALSO threaten region considerably with lofty threats
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Strong grip, hedging on health
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Wrong on health
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 13, 2025 06:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Feb 13, 2025 to Aug 13, 2025
98%
(+3%)
No
Feb 13, 2025 to Aug 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
China building their command and control centre west of Beijing lowers likelihood in the near future
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's a ploy
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Crowd.
Why might you be wrong?