This genie is out of the bottle. There may be legislation but I don't think it will be effective in stopping use of OpenAI.
4.473517
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Unless legislated, these organizations have legal protections which decrease the incentive to self-regulate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Would fit trends in influence campaigns waged by nations, trans-national organizations and interest groups.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Self-enabling counter dis/mis-information techniques and technologies will help curb push on legistators, increase public trust of platforms and expose dis/mis-information efforts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not currently required or pursued by legislative bodies.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
15%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Despite claims of privacy protection, they would need to make a compelling case that can be easily understood.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Blockchain technology adaptation takes an exponential growth in adaptation over next 3 months.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Social Media companies may self-regulate by posting warnings rather than wait for legislation since there is an increased focus by regulators (Congress, EU, etc.) on AI generated content.
Files