yankeeracer73

About:
Show more

0.11749

Relative Brier Score

13

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 2 14 14 57
Comments 0 1 5 5 15
Questions Forecasted 1 2 4 4 17
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 2 6
 Definitions
New Badge
yankeeracer73
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Calendar progress towards the date and the situation being relatively unchanged to move the needle.

Files
New Badge
yankeeracer73
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

U.S. sending anti-missile systems and soldiers to help operate them is a key signal things are ratcheting up, not down. Lowering my probability further as we approach the timeframe of the end of the question.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Israel may decide it has achieved its objectives of effectively dismantling the group before this period and a cease fire is declared.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
yankeeracer73
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Passage of time with no movement towards resolution. Israel is now preoccupied on their northern front too, removing some of the pressure to formally resolve. 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
yankeeracer73
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Many false starts and the assassination of a senior Hamas official in Iran + the passage of time towards 12/1 is driving me to lower the likelihood to 40%. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The Americans could make an extreme push to try and exert their influence to make this happen before Biden leaves office (among other things)

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username