U.S. sending anti-missile systems and soldiers to help operate them is a key signal things are ratcheting up, not down. Lowering my probability further as we approach the timeframe of the end of the question.
0.11749
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 57 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 44 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-20%)
Yes
90%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israel may decide it has achieved its objectives of effectively dismantling the group before this period and a cease fire is declared.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Passage of time with no movement towards resolution. Israel is now preoccupied on their northern front too, removing some of the pressure to formally resolve.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-25%)
Yes
60%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many false starts and the assassination of a senior Hamas official in Iran + the passage of time towards 12/1 is driving me to lower the likelihood to 40%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Americans could make an extreme push to try and exert their influence to make this happen before Biden leaves office (among other things)
Files
Calendar progress towards the date and the situation being relatively unchanged to move the needle.