Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 55 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Definitions |

New Prediction

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2025 04:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 01:51AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 24, 2025 07:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(+1%)
Yes
Dec 24, 2024 to Jun 24, 2025
99%
(-1%)
No
Dec 24, 2024 to Jun 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed the previous forecast... very unlikely to see a Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel
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Why might you be wrong?
I am not sure about this prediction... There could be many things coming up in the next 6 months.
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
EUV technology is the pinnacle of semiconductor manufacturing, which is highly complex. Chinese firms, including Huawei, have filed patents for EUV components, signaling a focus on this specific technology. However, no prototypes have been demonstrated that match ASML's HVM capabilities.
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Why might you be wrong?
China's heavy investment in semiconductor R&D; alternative technologies?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The recent talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia signal a push to improve ties and end the war. Although Ukraine was excluded from these discussions (as reported by CBS News and Reuters), the U.S. has been engaging both parties separately. In March 2025, a partial ceasefire was agreed upon for the Black Sea, focusing on safe navigation and energy infrastructure, showing that limited agreements are possible with international mediation. The UN and European countries are also exploring roles in overseeing or supporting a ceasefire, adding diplomatic momentum.
Why might you be wrong?
Partial ceasefires have been fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations.