Given the situation right now in Gaza, I don't think these countries will recognize Israel as a state. They haven't for this many years, so it seems unlikely that after the current circumstances, they will in the near future. I also think that if they were to, they would receive even more lash back from other Muslim countries and the worldwide Muslim population.
1.267377
Relative Brier Score
289
Forecasts
19
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 289 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 79 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Microelectronics,
Decoding Disinformation,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 30, 2023 11:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024
50%
No
Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024
For my first forecast, I will go 50/50. There have been attacks by the Houthis and also threats, so it can occur. However, it is also very likely that such an attach will be averted.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 11:19PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 30, 2023 11:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024
Given the current situation between Israel and Gaza, this can kind of go either way. It's hard to say for sure, but Ii think it is more likely than not that at least at the moment we will see an attack/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
(0%)
Yes
17%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
Lowering as we get closer to the end of 2023. It doesn't seem likely they will introduce anything by the end of the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Recent news shows that "Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that his country will stick to a path of peaceful development". If this holds true, it Australia won't need to impose a level 3 or 4 travel advisory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(0%)
Yes
87%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
(0%)
Yes
57%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
To even get to a point of talking about normalization, it took a very long time. Given the current war in Gaza by Israel, it seems very unlikely that this normalization will happen any time soon. If anything, I think it pushes that scenario further back.