That a correction did occur as forecasted last fall.
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3
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
That if OpenAI has a breakthrough in addressing the performance bottleneck within the next 3 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+12%)
Yes
85%
(-12%)
No
Adjusting up slightly because Nvidia does have a shot at returning to #1 in market cap by May, but Nvidia is much more exposed to the geopolitical challenges and the volatility surrounding the AI/ML space compared to the Big Five.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Only point I was tying to make is, that 3% looks quite radical to me under the circumstances.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia's stock price and market cap seems to be heavily dependent on trends and breakthroughs of the AI field.
Why might you be wrong?
Would there be a crypto boom that drives up Nvidia's chips demand again?