RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	-0.000091
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.000022
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.000037
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000008
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.017672
Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	0.000153
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	0.003592
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.004666
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.169383
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	-0.015339
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.120786
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.021242
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.006102
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.006673
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.012329
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.00213