Forecasted Questions
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 30, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 97% | -17% | +1% |
| No | 20% | 3% | +17% | -1% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:35AM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 03:35AM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 24% | +36% | -4% |
| No | 40% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 76% | -36% | +4% |