Confirmed previous forecast
0.233587
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 84 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nicolas Maduro takes control of Venezuela by force, just like the previous presidents. This country has a long history with this type of leadership, and in my opinion, it's not going to change.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Venezuela can have legitimate elections only if the resistance takes control of the electoral process.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
