Confirmed previous forecast
1.064625
Relative Brier Score
81
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 61 | 25 | 345 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 32 | 15 | 80 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2024 12:43AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
76%
(0%)
No
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
3%
(0%)
2024 Q1
5%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2024 06:00AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 27, 2024 to Dec 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files