Confirmed previous forecast
6.185848
Relative Brier Score
345
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 61 | 25 | 345 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 32 | 15 | 80 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2024 12:43AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
76%
(0%)
No
Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
3%
(0%)
2024 Q1
5%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2024 06:00AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 27, 2024 to Dec 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files