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DavidG
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Seasons
2024 Season
2020 Season
2025 Season
2021 Season
2023 Season
2022 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.007604
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
0.069487
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
0.885605
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
1.237685
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)
0.00125
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)
0.005
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)
0.004355
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
0.732884
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)
0.004839
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
0.048491
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
0.338309
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
1.212154
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
0.644067
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)
0.006
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
-0.034502
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)
0.02
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM
Will Googleβs Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
0.141126
Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
0.000291
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)
0.000667
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.078665
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