Planned, but also opportunistic, as part of a larger, multi-theater war.
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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 01:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
50%
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 01:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
50%
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
My perception that the frequency of naval exercises is increasing and that this is part of a strategy for war games to become commonplace and therefore less concerning globally, which will be to the PLA’s advantage.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Estonia
10%
Latvia
5%
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Nothing to suggest a change will happen in the next couple of weeks, so pulling the likelihood down to 99%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
lowering as the question window closes..
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 22, 2024 06:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 22, 2024 to Aug 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files