Iran knows they'll start a war that they can't win against the US, that would bring regime change.
So there's no way they'll directly attack the US. They'll use proxies as they always have.
4.798648
Relative Brier Score
81
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 81 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 46 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Government Investment
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 08:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
99%
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2024 01:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
85%
No
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
China doesn't have any interest in destabilizing the international scenario for now.
The US/western & China economies are not yet uncoupled for this to be done without worse repercussions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
Yes
29%
No
The tech needed for chip production for training AI models is very specific and expensive. Constructing the facilities needed for the production is as just as a challenge as developing the tech needed to design the chips.
Entering this marker has high barriers that will keep Nvidia as the main player in this space for the short term.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 20, 2024 11:54PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
0%
No
Jun 20, 2024 to Dec 20, 2024
Definetly. USA is bound to support them due to the strong Israel lobby. And Israel doesn't need anyone else's support to go forward with a 2 front war, now that the Gaza front can be relaxed for now.
Files
The wat has basically already started