Due to the difficult nature of reaching a ceasefire, if Zelensky would agree to (since he's at a clear disadvantage) to a truce, his partners (EU countries) would follow through with him. And even if he changes his mind later, he won't be able to act alone without his European partners. And I believe that once this matter is settled, the EU will focus on using its budget to rebuild Europe and strengthen it, and not go to a second phase of animosities. As for Russia, it will probably get an advantageous ceasefire deal, and it is not interesting for Russia to resurface this issue again.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 30 days
0%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
100%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If either Russia or Ukraine gets attacked (in a smaller fraction) breaking the ceasefire, for instance, a drone attack, it may spark the issue back.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+15%)
Less than 7%
75%
(+75%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
10%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
0%
(-40%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
(-60%)
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia currently occupies 7% of the Ukrainian territory, thus it will most likely remain the same or increase, given the military advantage of Russia. It is less likely to double than to decrease.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any side has a sudden military advantage on weapon that can drastically increase or decrease the amount of territory occupied by Russia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
0%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
40%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
60%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been fluctuating its domain over Ukraine's territory between 15-25%, it has been holding back, but hardly progressing much more than this. Especially because as far as it has been understood, the Kremlin aims to annex Donbas and maintain Crimea, thus Russia is not interested in 50%< of Ukraine's territory. Thus, it will stay more or less the same.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the Russian military is not organised and doesn't have a clear strategic plan to maintain those territories, it may lose control of it. Also, again, if situations such as Wagner happen, that is, disagreements and mismanagement between the Russian government and its extensions (army, private groups, independent fighters etc) occur, they may lose more or less territory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has a well-established system that keeps him in power. Besides that, he has successfully retained the Russian population's approval. Even if he hadn't, many Russians do not believe in the credibility of elections in Russia and therefore don't even go to vote. Many who didn't support him left the country. His reelection is the most likely.
Unless there is a severe civil conflict that will force him out of control, he will still be the president of Russia.
Unless there is a severe civil conflict that will force him out of control, he will still be the president of Russia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If an unforeseen happens that causes a coup in Russia and forcefully takes him out of power, such as a civil war or internal conflict against an entity that has more military strength than the Russian army.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Reaching a consensus is already pretty difficult, as we have seen in the past years, and both sides don't seem to be on the same page at all even 3 years later. To reach that point, it will take several rounds of negotiation, which will take time. Then, if and when they do reach an agreement, I believe it will be close enough to the end of the second half of the year, and its implementation will be postponed to 2026.
Why might you be wrong?
Trump and Putin may overrule Zelensky and decide on an agreement with little participation from him and this can be forced onto him, if they get the support of EU members (due to their large expenditures and their ongoing fear of an escalation of the conflict), this could also be even more pressing for Zelensky and negotiations and its implementation may happen sooner.