Confirmed previous forecast
1.682429
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+15%)
Less than 7%
75%
(+75%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
10%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
0%
(-40%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
(-60%)
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia currently occupies 7% of the Ukrainian territory, thus it will most likely remain the same or increase, given the military advantage of Russia. It is less likely to double than to decrease.
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Why might you be wrong?
If any side has a sudden military advantage on weapon that can drastically increase or decrease the amount of territory occupied by Russia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
0%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
40%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
60%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been fluctuating its domain over Ukraine's territory between 15-25%, it has been holding back, but hardly progressing much more than this. Especially because as far as it has been understood, the Kremlin aims to annex Donbas and maintain Crimea, thus Russia is not interested in 50%< of Ukraine's territory. Thus, it will stay more or less the same.
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Why might you be wrong?
If the Russian military is not organised and doesn't have a clear strategic plan to maintain those territories, it may lose control of it. Also, again, if situations such as Wagner happen, that is, disagreements and mismanagement between the Russian government and its extensions (army, private groups, independent fighters etc) occur, they may lose more or less territory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has a well-established system that keeps him in power. Besides that, he has successfully retained the Russian population's approval. Even if he hadn't, many Russians do not believe in the credibility of elections in Russia and therefore don't even go to vote. Many who didn't support him left the country. His reelection is the most likely.
Unless there is a severe civil conflict that will force him out of control, he will still be the president of Russia.
Unless there is a severe civil conflict that will force him out of control, he will still be the president of Russia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If an unforeseen happens that causes a coup in Russia and forcefully takes him out of power, such as a civil war or internal conflict against an entity that has more military strength than the Russian army.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files