No advance in negotiations, even considering some recent agreements
0.523022
Relative Brier Score
46
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 104 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-35%)
Yes
60%
(+35%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 30, 2024 03:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Updating due to deadline
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-20%)
Yes
95%
(+20%)
No
Update due to deadline, no visible advance in regulations regarding this
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+45%)
Yes
25%
(-45%)
No
Updating due to recent UNSC decision, might advance pressures for a ceasefire
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 25, 2024 05:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
99%
(+4%)
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Highly unlikely so far
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
News of a possible ceasefire proposal from Hamas