No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
This can be attributed to a mix of factors: a prioritization of national security amidst persistent threats; political benefits of a strong defense stance domestically; Israel's historical context of conflict; Netanyahu's right-leaning ideological beliefs favoring a robust response over negotiation; and external provocations from neighboring entities. These combined elements created a landscape where the conflict fits more in the goverment narrative over the benefits of an eventual peace agreement.
Why might you be wrong?
Israel might accept a ceasefire for several reasons. These include international pressure to halt hostilities, concerns about the humanitarian situation escalating further, the strategic advantage of pausing to regroup or reassess, diplomatic opportunities arising from the willingness to negotiate, and the desire to prevent further casualties on both sides.