jp_pietricovsky

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0.110029

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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My First Question

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jp_pietricovsky
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2023 01:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 31, 2023 to Nov 30, 2023
Why do you think you're right?

This can be attributed to a mix of factors: a prioritization of national security amidst persistent threats; political benefits of a strong defense stance domestically; Israel's historical context of conflict; Netanyahu's right-leaning ideological beliefs favoring a robust response over negotiation; and external provocations from neighboring entities. These combined elements created a landscape where the conflict fits more in the goverment narrative over the benefits of an eventual peace agreement.

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Why might you be wrong?

Israel might accept a ceasefire for several reasons. These include international pressure to halt hostilities, concerns about the humanitarian situation escalating further, the strategic advantage of pausing to regroup or reassess, diplomatic opportunities arising from the willingness to negotiate, and the desire to prevent further casualties on both sides.

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