Confirmed previous forecast
0.600274
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(0%)
Yes
26%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 1, 2024 02:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2024
71%
No
Feb 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Hezbolah will launch rockets in Israel, but will not involve in open war
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As above said
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Iran is going to leave the nuclear deal as soon as it can get weapons of mass destruction.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6%
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Likely not, since its military industrial complex is busy delivering to the russian army and air force.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 1, 2023 02:09AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Sep 1, 2023 to Mar 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Iran's nuclear power is growing. Israel may preemptly attack Iran.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Exoplanets are being found everywhere. It is very likely others will be found
Why might you be wrong?
Probably not wrong