RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.154875
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	0.823762
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	0.0156
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.584674
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.220133
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	0.550947
Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	-0.018142
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)	0.003417
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	0.001097
Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	0.097671
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	0.08341
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.061266
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?	0.000391
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	0.505001
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.003553