Confirmed previous forecast
0.351283
Relative Brier Score
58
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 68 | 68 | 370 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 80 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 09:28AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Time passing since my last forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-23%)
Yes
93%
(+23%)
No
Dropping likelihood due to recent action
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 24, 2024 04:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-3%)
Yes
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
96%
(+3%)
No
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
War continues
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 24, 2024 04:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
Jun 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2024
96%
(+1%)
No
Jun 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2024
Small adjustment on previous estimation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+6%)
Yes
70%
(-6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I've not looked at this question in a while, so I think I should probably shift reasonably large given more recent news. I'm meeting the crowd a bit.
However, people seem to be missing the second half of the Netanyahu quote [0]:
However, people seem to be missing the second half of the Netanyahu quote [0]:
> “The intense phase of the fighting against Hamas is about to end,” he said. “It doesn’t mean that the war is about to end, but the war in its intense phase is about to end in Rafah.”
This doesn't sound like the ending of military action as required by the question.
[0] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/23/netanyahu-says-war-will-continue-even-if-deal-agreed-with-hamas
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think I should look at similar bubbling tensions war base rates, but I have not.
Files
War has escalated since my last forecast