~
-0.048873
Relative Brier Score
21
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(-29%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Yes
Prices seem to be following a scaling law of dropping by a factor of ~1.8 annually, so it seems like there's a reasonable chance that will drop below a hundred, as the current best is reported $200.
Files
Updating on crowd forecast shift