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No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
![](https://assets.randforecastinginitiative.org/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
New Prediction
![](https://assets.randforecastinginitiative.org/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(-29%)
Yes
Files
![](https://assets.randforecastinginitiative.org/assets/v18/feed_ui/feed_icons/prediction-set-feed-icon-c20403995d0d38c8cd1cb81c4ad59f33954a9d9f7573b8faedbf36f3f2e9c577.png)
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Yes
Prices seem to be following a scaling law of dropping by a factor of ~1.8 annually, so it seems like there's a reasonable chance that will drop below a hundred, as the current best is reported $200.
Files
Updating on crowd forecast shift