Neil

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Neil
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Neil
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 7, 2023 03:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (-69%)
Yes
Nov 7, 2023 to Dec 7, 2023
Why do you think you're right?

Israeli government plans to occup Gaza or at the very least ensure security in the area. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Increasing USA and Western pressure on Israel to wrap up the military intervention and leave Gaza

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New Badge
Neil
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Neil
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 13, 2023 10:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Oct 13, 2023 to Nov 13, 2023
Why do you think you're right?

Israel is unlikely to want to occupy Gaza, following the land incursion they will want to withdraw. Such a withdrawal will require a cease fire agreement. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Hamas is so depleted they are no longer in a position to govern, so a cease fire agreement with them is irrelevant. 

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