Israel is unlikely to want to occupy Gaza, following the land incursion they will want to withdraw. Such a withdrawal will require a cease fire agreement.
-0.467054
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 13, 2023 10:30AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Oct 13, 2023 to Nov 13, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hamas is so depleted they are no longer in a position to govern, so a cease fire agreement with them is irrelevant.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Israeli government plans to occup Gaza or at the very least ensure security in the area.
Why might you be wrong?
Increasing USA and Western pressure on Israel to wrap up the military intervention and leave Gaza