106th
Accuracy Rank

tango

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0.133344

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 22 0 256
Comments 0 0 0 0 11
Questions Forecasted 0 0 22 0 81
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 3 0 8
 Definitions
New Prediction

After a six-month ceasefire in 2022, the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, are taking steps toward a new ceasefire. The conflict, ongoing since 2015, has led to widespread suffering in Yemen. 


Going by 40-60 initial guess - will update basis info received/ develoments further

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New Prediction
tango
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
57%
Less than $90
38%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
4%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
1%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
More than or equal to $120

WB report underscores the risk of heightened Israel-Hamas tensions elevating oil prices to $157 per barrel, with a 6% increase observed since the conflict's onset. Predicting a $90 per barrel global average by year-end, the report highlights potential economic challenges and a dual energy shock if conflicts intensify.

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New Prediction

In the ongoing conflict, both sides present unrealistic demands. Israel and its allies could potentially block Iranian resupplies, impacting the situation. President Biden may influence Israel to reconsider its goal of destroying Hamas, and internal pressures might lead to a 30-day violence cessation. However, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rejected an Egyptian-led proposal, insisting on hostages' return. Israeli prerequisites for peace include destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing Palestinian society.

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New Prediction

Not elected as of now - bleak chance 

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New Prediction

Not done yet - highly unlikely of this being possible now as well

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New Prediction

Negotiation stage still - no final update

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New Prediction
tango
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
99% (+66%)
Less than 6,000
1% (-50%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0% (-6%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0% (-10%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 9,000

from current numbers reported - as 2023 is coming to an end - putting the numbers

https://acleddata.com/acled-conflict-index-mid-year-update/

Article for reference

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New Prediction

2023, coming to an end shows no possibility of this happening

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New Prediction

no update till 29th December - bleak chance of this happening in the next 2 days explaining the numbers

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