WB report underscores the risk of heightened Israel-Hamas tensions elevating oil prices to $157 per barrel, with a 6% increase observed since the conflict's onset. Predicting a $90 per barrel global average by year-end, the report highlights potential economic challenges and a dual energy shock if conflicts intensify.
0.248827
Relative Brier Score
57
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
Less than $90
38%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
4%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
1%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
More than or equal to $120
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
Yes
41%
No
In the ongoing conflict, both sides present unrealistic demands. Israel and its allies could potentially block Iranian resupplies, impacting the situation. President Biden may influence Israel to reconsider its goal of destroying Hamas, and internal pressures might lead to a 30-day violence cessation. However, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rejected an Egyptian-led proposal, insisting on hostages' return. Israeli prerequisites for peace include destroying Hamas, demilitarizing Gaza, and deradicalizing Palestinian society.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Not elected as of now - bleak chance
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Not done yet - highly unlikely of this being possible now as well
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
Negotiation stage still - no final update
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Not happening now as the year has come to an end - 2025 elections possibility
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+66%)
Less than 6,000
1%
(-50%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0%
(-6%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0%
(-10%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 9,000
from current numbers reported - as 2023 is coming to an end - putting the numbers
https://acleddata.com/acled-conflict-index-mid-year-update/
Article for reference
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
2023, coming to an end shows no possibility of this happening
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-7%)
Yes
no update till 29th December - bleak chance of this happening in the next 2 days explaining the numbers
Files
After a six-month ceasefire in 2022, the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, are taking steps toward a new ceasefire. The conflict, ongoing since 2015, has led to widespread suffering in Yemen.
Going by 40-60 initial guess - will update basis info received/ develoments further