The possibility of Ali Khamenei fleeing Iran or ceasing to be Supreme Leader next year cannot be ruled out. Internal and external pressures, such as sanctions and demonstrations, may lead you to consider an exit strategy. However, its resilient stance suggests a low probability of this happening, around 20%.@FirstWoman
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 07:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Nov 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025
80%
No
Nov 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ali Khamenei is unlikely to flee Iran or leave his position as Supreme Leader next year. He has demonstrated robust leadership, supported by a cohesive political security system and institutions that guarantee his permanence in power. The Revolutionary Guard and other security groups have a significant interest in preserving their regime and fighting the opposition, which undermines any push for change. Furthermore, Khamenei has a strong base of support among conservative and religious sectors of Iranian society. The country's history, marked by resistance to external pressures and internal revolts, suggests that he will remain firmly in charge, resulting in an 80% probability of continuity in his leadership. @FirtsWoman
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The positive analysis is based on the Theory of Realism in International Relations. Lebanon faces significant internal and external pressure to ensure political stability. According to realism, states act in their own interest and seek to maintain power. The lack of a president compromises the country's governance and security, which can be seen as a threat to Lebanese sovereignty.
Factors include:
External pressure from regional and international actors (France, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran) who seek stability in Lebanon to contain migration crises and extremism;
Internal agreements between rival parties (Hezbollah and its allies vs. pro-Western groups) to avoid government collapse;
The need for economic reforms in light of the financial crisis, requiring leadership to negotiate aid packages from the IMF.
These elements suggest that the Lebanese political system, although fragmented, has incentives to reach a consensus, resulting in the election of a president.@FirstWoman
Why might you be wrong?
The negative analysis is grounded in the Theory of Constructivism, which emphasizes the role of identities, narratives, and cultural divisions in the political process. Lebanon has a confessional political system, where the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.
Currently, identity and religious divisions are deep, making it difficult to reach the necessary consensus for an election. Hezbollah and its allies support one candidate, while pro-Western groups back another, resulting in a deadlock.
Factors reinforcing this prediction include:
Lack of mutual trust between political factions;
Influence of regional crises, such as the conflict in Gaza and tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, diverting focus from the election;
Low immediate pressure from international actors, who may prioritize other conflicts in the region.
The absence of a political environment conducive to cooperation suggests that the deadlock will persist, delaying the election.@FirstWoman
Thanks I like the realism. What you csll constructivism Yields a patrimonial hiearchy. I think Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama point out the plate tectonics.
It's not Arab v. Christians. It's Sunnis Shiites and Christians which has been ongoing since French left and before. And US is involved and key. Actually more complex. You have Druze who are not Muslim or Christians. Even Turks.
And you have a very bright secular Urban Elite. Indeed it seems the key to solving Lebanon is the key to solving Israel and some kind of General Regional peace.
Enshallah! Outstanding analysis