Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 16, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Nov 16, 2024 | 18% | -3% | -3% |
| No | 85% | Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025 | Nov 16, 2024 | 82% | +3% | +3% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +1% |