Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +1% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 02:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 02:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 12% | +3% | -2% |
| No | 85% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025 | Dec 17, 2024 | 88% | -3% | +2% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 05:37PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 05:37PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2026 | Feb 17, 2025 | 12% | +13% | +0% |
| No | 75% | Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2026 | Feb 17, 2025 | 88% | -13% | +0% |