TimeRider

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Relative Brier Score
1383000.511.522.53
Questions Forecasted

4

Forecasts

1

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 Definitions
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New Prediction
TimeRider
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Mar 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Argentina: With a history of multiple defaults, including in 2001, 2014, and 2020, Argentina faces debt maturities exceeding $14 billion in 2025, with insufficient reserves to meet these obligations.

Bolivia: Bolivia's economic outlook is deteriorating, with a rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves and persistent fiscal deficits

While Bolivia has not defaulted since the 1980s, its deteriorating economic situation and dwindling reserves raise concerns about its ability to service external debt.

The country's bond yields are at or near record highs, reflecting increasing investor concern about Bolivia's economic outlook.

Ecuador: With a high external debt at about 55% of GDP at the end of 2023, Ecuador's economic and political instability, combined with its dependence on oil revenues, make it susceptible to defaulting on its external debt obligations. 



 





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Why might you be wrong?

Argentina is poised for significant economic changes in 2025 due to the reforms implemented by President Javier Milei's administration. 

These changes are part of President Milei's broader economic reform agenda aimed at stabilizing Argentina's economy and attracting foreign investment.

Bolivia: By implementing various measures, Bolivia could address its current economic challenges, attract more private investment, and foster sustainable and inclusive growth.

https://idbinvest.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Bolivia-Country-Strategy-IDB-Group-2022.pdf


Ecuador: By implementing structural reforms, Ecuador could attract more private investment, stabilize its energy sector, and foster sustainable economic growth. 


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New Prediction
TimeRider
made their 4th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 6, 2025 03:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (-5%)
Yes
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
90% (+5%)
No
Jan 6, 2025 to Jul 6, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Same rational. Lowering with passage of time. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

There is always the chance that NK could attempt to distract attention from other events. 

Files
New Prediction
TimeRider
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 18, 2025 04:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25% (0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2024 to Jun 18, 2026
75% (0%)
No
Dec 18, 2024 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
TimeRider
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 18, 2025 04:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2024 to Jun 18, 2025
85% (0%)
No
Dec 18, 2024 to Jun 18, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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TimeRider
earned a new badge:

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