Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:18AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 02:18AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 7% | -4% | -5% |
| No | 97% | 93% | +4% | +5% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:23AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 02:23AM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Jan 30, 2025 | 13% | +0% | +4% |
| No | 87% | Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 | Jan 30, 2025 | 87% | +0% | -4% |