Weakened global order means leaders have been getting away with coups in Africa, no clear reason why I’d expect this trend to reverse.
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Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
40%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Six months is a fairly short timeframe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
100%
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
The pain caused to the global economy, including China’s would be too great. Especially at a time when china is struggling economically
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-61%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Israel is back to more hawkish outlooks after recent elections, I just don’t see it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They said they would!
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
78%
Yes
Its been three years since they said they would normalize relations, both governments kinda need a win right now, it would just make sense to get the deal done.
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Troops mobilizing on border