All countries seem to be recovering fairly well
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-17%)
Argentina
15%
(-33%)
Bolivia
10%
(-41%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
LatAm!
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 15, 2025 03:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
Argentina
48%
Bolivia
51%
Ecuador
Ecuador/Bolivia look to be in rough shape, Milei will tank social safety net before he defaults if think
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 3, 2025 04:43AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+2%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2025
85%
(-2%)
No
Dec 3, 2024 to Dec 3, 2025
Decreased risk of Israeli military action following Hezbollah ceasefire
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2025 04:43AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
40%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2025 04:42AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(+1%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
99%
(-1%)
No
Dec 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2025
Would be devastating to the international economy, especially at a time when Taiwan seems open to cooperation with China
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Region cooling down, reformist being elected will cool calls to secularize immediately
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps new leader will be more radical than expected