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DanAGS
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
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Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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Decoding Disinformation
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Mission: AI Advancement
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
-0.000004
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
0.006952
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
-0.032671
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.049795
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
0.000777
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
0.023065
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
0.085157
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
-0.2876
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
0.058685
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC
Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
0.18344
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
-0.009336
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
-0.0455
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.096449
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.00248
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.042763
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
0.027367
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
0.029912
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)
-0.000423
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
-0.151766
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
0.351334
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