Alarming escalation of conflict.
0.131846
Relative Brier Score
204
Forecasts
17
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 27 | 297 | 204 | 587 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 59 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 17 | 41 | 27 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 28 | 17 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+55%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
10%
(-55%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+35%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
10%
(-35%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025
Alarming escalation of conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
(+20%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
45%
(-20%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Number of attacks increasing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
5%
(+4%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(-4%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(-4%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Going with the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-30%)
Yes
80%
(+30%)
No
Tension in the region and multiple failed attempts for a ceasefire, time is running out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+10%)
Yes
Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025
65%
(-10%)
No
Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+10%)
Yes
Sep 21, 2024 to Mar 21, 2025
65%
(-10%)
No
Sep 21, 2024 to Mar 21, 2025
Following the crowd.