Going all the way down, further losses are expected.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
69
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 25 | 254 | 69 | 715 |
| Comments | 6 | 19 | 66 | 60 | 123 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 14 | 41 | 23 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 88 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+3%)
Moldova
5%
(+3%)
Armenia
5%
(+3%)
Georgia
5%
(+3%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
If there is no ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this will only escalate further.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/13/russian-missile-strike-kills-injured-ukraine-sumy
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+1%)
Estonia
2%
(+1%)
Latvia
2%
(+1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Even though Ukraine has accepted a temporal ceasefire, Russia keeps attacking. I think it there is no ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia this will only escalate further.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/13/russian-missile-strike-kills-injured-ukraine-sumy
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N\A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
70%
(+65%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
(-7%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
(-13%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
10%
(-45%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Push to happen in 'weeks'.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No agreement is reached.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
87%
(+7%)
30 days
5%
(-5%)
31-60 days
2%
(-1%)
61-90 days
1%
(-1%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Right now 30-days ceasefire is what it's on the table. I will increase a bit on this bin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Less or more than 30 days are also possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don't think if will happen in less than a month. Still number 3.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
5%
(-10%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
17%
(+1%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
23%
(+6%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
55%
(+3%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
It seems that the current talks are not going anywhere.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2026
95%
(-4%)
No
Apr 6, 2025 to Oct 6, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing a bit given the current situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-50%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
15%
(-11%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
16%
(+6%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
17%
(+7%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
52%
(+48%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think an agreement will take longer than expected.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An agreement is reached.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I will increase a 1% on each based on the news shared by @DKC
https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-seize-russia-shadow-tanker-baltic-sea/
Why might you be wrong?
N/A