Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 06:39PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 18, 2024 06:39PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 18, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 18, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 8% | 9% | -1% | -1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 22, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 24, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 2% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 97% | Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 | Dec 4, 2024 | 98% | -1% | +2% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | Nov 6, 2024 to Nov 6, 2025 | Feb 6, 2025 | 22% | +33% | +0% |
| No | 45% | Nov 6, 2024 to Nov 6, 2025 | Feb 6, 2025 | 78% | -33% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2024 04:25PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Nov 06, 2024 04:25PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 8% | -7% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 92% | +7% | +2% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 08, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 08, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |