RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.025
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.174419
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	0.216228
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.587221
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.097093
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM	How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?	0.037549
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.000786
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.009409
Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.011197
Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.021833
Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.023519