xylix

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Relative Brier Score
13810-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Questions Forecasted

1

Forecasts

0

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xylix
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
23%
Less than 30 days
23%
30 days
10%
31-60 days
12%
61-90 days
32%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?

I think it will either be a very short ceasefire or ~half year long at least. I find it probable that both sides will want to take some time to regather their forces and resources. On the other hand it is also probable that they want to give the other side minimal time to prepare, and will break the agreement very soon (under a month).

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Why might you be wrong?

Some parameter I've missed, the sides have specific reasons to go for a between 1-3 month ceasefire or agreemeent.

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