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U.S. institutions are substantially recovered from COVID-19 limitations on collaboration and in-person research.
Great Power competition with China and increased U.S. government funding (both open and covert) make this a near certainty. Large U.S. tech players and U.S. universities will continue to invest for first-mover IP advantage despite declining revenues and inflationary pressures.
Discovery of significant flaws in current theories of quantum computing or AI/ML, abrupt supply chain constraints on critical materials, national security lockdowns on publication, and other black swan events.
Vladimir Putin has succeeded to this point by ensuring that all factions have more to lose than to gain if power changes hands. The most recent analysis indicates that this remains the case. There are still no alliances among factions (however dissatisfied with military and economic losses) that could credibly negotiate revolt and succession in Putin's absence.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/19/russia-putin-elites-threat-regime/
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is posturing aggressively (note today's announcement terminating the Black Sea grain deal, threats to commercial satellites, strategic tu quoque statements about Ukraine "dirty bomb" preparations, etc.)
There's a significant likelihood of a nuclear missile test as an attempt to stake out public non-negotiables backed up by force, while at the same time seeking a face-saving private deal that moderates the continuing military and economic damage Russia is dealing with.
Why might you be wrong?
Vladimir Putin and allies may calculate that the current saber-rattling and ongoing economic/political sabotage through energy and food interference are sufficient to weaken Western resolve, allowing time to reconstitute the Russian army and consolidate territorial gains.
Alternately, the probability that Putin will go ahead with a false-flag nuclear detonation in Ukraine (and I count reactor sabotage or conventional weapons used to spread radioactive material as "nuclear weapons", though others may not), depends on how weak Russia/Putin actually is and the degree to which they've bought into their own apocalyptic religious propaganda.