U.S. institutions are substantially recovered from COVID-19 limitations on collaboration and in-person research.
Great Power competition with China and increased U.S. government funding (both open and covert) make this a near certainty. Large U.S. tech players and U.S. universities will continue to invest for first-mover IP advantage despite declining revenues and inflationary pressures.
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is posturing aggressively (note today's announcement terminating the Black Sea grain deal, threats to commercial satellites, strategic tu quoque statements about Ukraine "dirty bomb" preparations, etc.)
There's a significant likelihood of a nuclear missile test as an attempt to stake out public non-negotiables backed up by force, while at the same time seeking a face-saving private deal that moderates the continuing military and economic damage Russia is dealing with.
Why might you be wrong?
Vladimir Putin and allies may calculate that the current saber-rattling and ongoing economic/political sabotage through energy and food interference are sufficient to weaken Western resolve, allowing time to reconstitute the Russian army and consolidate territorial gains.
Alternately, the probability that Putin will go ahead with a false-flag nuclear detonation in Ukraine (and I count reactor sabotage or conventional weapons used to spread radioactive material as "nuclear weapons", though others may not), depends on how weak Russia/Putin actually is and the degree to which they've bought into their own apocalyptic religious propaganda.